(Kitco News) – Despite gold's lackluster performance since the outbreak of the Iran war, the updated calculus of risk, interest rate policy, inflation, and strong underlying demand will still propel the yellow metal as high as $6,200 per oz by the end of 2026, according to commodity analysts at UBS. In a Friday note, the analysts noted that gold has been unable to break out above $5,200 per ounce since the start of the Iran conflict, with its supposed safe-haven bid failing to materialize. “This creates a contrast to its 65% rise last year, when heightened geopolitical risks served as a tailwind amid fundamental drivers such as lower real interest rates and debt concerns,” they noted. “Its latest performance mirrors historical behavior during such events, where investors seek liquidity and consider alternatives like energy assets.